Australia’s housing market burst into spring with renewed vigour in September, posting its strongest monthly rise in nearly two years as cashed-up buyers scrambled amid tight supply.
Nationally, dwelling values climbed 0.8 per cent, the fastest monthly gain since October 2023, lifting the median-value home by approximately $18,215 to $857,280.
Over the past quarter, values rose 2.2 per cent – outperforming the 1.5 per cent jump recorded in June and double the March quarter’s pace.
According to PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh, the broader market is being bolstered by rising borrowing capacity, improved sentiment, and intensified competition.
Melbourne Hits a New High
According to an article published by RealEstate.com.au, Melbourne prices have now reached a record high, eclipsing the previous peak from 2022.
The data published shows Melbourne prices have increased by 20% in the past five years, while prices are up about 40% in Sydney and about 90% in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.
That relative affordability has put it back on the radar for investors, many of whom exited the Victorian market amid the slower recovery following the pandemic and changes to property tax laws.
RBA Holds – Buyers Unfazed
The Reserve Bank’s decision to keep the cash rate steady at 3.6 per cent aligned with market expectations and is unlikely to dampen sentiment. After three rate cuts this year, borrowing conditions remain favourable and buyer confidence is firming.
Demand Peaks, Supply Vanishes
Cotality’s research director Tim Lawless attributes the surge to “buyers competing for low levels of listings,” with demand continuing to outstrip supply. He expects that trend to intensify as the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme comes online.
The strongest monthly gains were observed in Darwin (+1.7 %), Perth (+1.6 %), and Brisbane (+1.2 %). In Perth, listings are about 45 per cent below average; in Brisbane, they’re down 31 per cent. Darwin is the tightest market of all — listings have plunged 53 per cent, even as prices jumped 5.9 per cent over the quarter.
Domain research chief Nicola Powell notes increased buyer enquiries across all capitals, with particularly strong rebounds in previously stagnant markets such as Canberra and Melbourne.
First Home Buyer Wave Incoming
One of the biggest catalysts ahead is the expansion of the First Home Guarantee from October. The changes remove income caps and broaden access, with new price caps set at $1.5 million in Sydney, $1 million in Brisbane, and $950,000 in Melbourne.
Lawless estimates about 93 per cent of suburbs currently fall within those caps. Powell sees the scheme as a “game-changer” that will accelerate deposit savings and bring a wave of first-time buyers to market – propping up values on the more affordable end.
